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The price quickly went up 10c, so I made $20 (200 shares at 10c) I contin/ / ued trading with 200-share blocks Then everything went south My rst adverse position happened so fast that I didn t have time to sell at a 10c stop/loss ($20 loss) I got scared, froze / up, and waited for it to retrace, but it never did The price continued against me The price dropped another 50c before I came to my senses and placed / a stop/loss I lost 70c on the trade (200 shares or $140) Most of my pro ts / for the day were gone, and I dejectedly slumped in my chair, feeling stupid for switching up after lunch I had much to learn from my mistake.

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Both good and the bad times will come, and both will eventually pass. Even with the best of teams, a given game s momentum has a way of shifting to the other team. In our competitive, global economy, both the economic booms and the recessions end at some point. Understanding this truth is important in maintaining your sanity, perspective, and focus on what matters most in life. As Abraham Lincoln struggled with the long and costly Civil War, one of his favorite quotes that fueled both his resolve and his hope was the Middle Eastern truth: This too shall pass. My mother used to say the same thing, and she was talking about me Someday these teenage years will end! Perhaps as a self-defense mechanism, we tend to overestimate the impact of bad economic periods and underestimate how fast we will be able to bounce back when the good times return. This helps us get busy dealing with the impact of bad recessions and helps us forget them when prosperity returns. An economist at business periodical Fast Company wrote: Optimism is over. . . . The layoffs, buyouts, and bankruptcies of the past year are starting to look like the good old days. Business sucks to such a degree that You cannot always choose unbridled optimism the kind what happens to you, but you of wild, harebrained zest to rule can always choose what the world is now just a sign happens in you! You cannot that your meds aren t working. change the circumstances that When was that written If life throws at you, but you can you guessed 2001 right after choose how you respond to the the 9/11 terrorist attacks and circumstances. the economic downturn that Willie Jolley resulted then you would be

Though I was no longer a beginner, I still struggled with consistency issues, and I lacked a complete understanding of the effect of overexposure With chagrin I recall my dumb rationale for increasing my shares to 200 I gured I was up over $200 and I could afford $20 losses What I didn t anticipate was the increase in volatility I should have been more mindful of the fact that there s always volatility, and the more exposure and more shares you have, then the more volatility you re dealing with Earlier that day I had been in a trade for about 30 seconds at a time That particular stock, PEP, took about 30 seconds to move 10c, which / meant that my 100 shares would become a $10 loss or pro t in about 30 seconds.

Combining and rearranging Equations (5.55) and (5.56), we can solve for DP. By doing so, we improve on the prior estimate DP for the default point, and again we use the information implied in the stock market. This seems reasonable because banks experience a relatively higher liquidity of their assets when they approach default. However, only the stock market implicitly contains information of how big the effects are.456 Hence:

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